2020 Georgia Runoffs Preview

The legacy and success of the Joe Biden presidency will come down to the results of two senate elections in the new swing state of Georgia this Tuesday. If the Democrats win both of the seats, the Senate will be tied with VP-Elect Kamala Harris breaking ties. The Democrats will be able to get most of their goals accomplished if this pans out. The Democrats, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have both run incredible campaigns focusing on bread and butter issues such as $2000 stimulus checks and healthcare while rightfully attacking their Republican opponents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler for their blatant corruption. In a surprise to many (not me), Georgia went blue for Biden in November. Despite this result, these two races are not slam dunks for Ossoff and Warnock due to a historic trend in lower turnout for runoffs and the high possibility of the surbanites who made Biden’s victory possible voting for Perdue or Loeffler because they are not Trump. However, Loeffler and Perdue have done everything they can to tie themselves to Trump, even calling for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger’s resignation. Would that cause surbanites to vote for Ossoff and Perdue? That is what this election will come down to. Will Warnock and Ossoff hit the margins in the suburbs (Cobb, Gwinnett) that made Biden’s victory possible? Another key factor is turnout in Southwest Georgia (Columbus, Fort Valley). If the Dems can get high turnout in favor of them in the Suburbs and SW Georgia, they will win. If the Republicans get depressed turnout in both areas and maintain their numbers in rural areas, they will win handily. This race can go either way. I would not be surprised if either side wins. There might be a possibility of a split decision. If there is, I think it would be Warnock/Perdue winning rather than Ossoff/Loeffler. However, I am going to make a final prediction using my gut.

Final Predictions: Ossoff beats Perdue 49–48, Warnock beats Loeffler 50–48.